TECHNOLOGY CHANGE AND "FUTURE HYPE"

Does the dizzying plethora of new technologies and products appearing in the marketplace have you thinking that technology is changing faster than ever? A new book, "Future Hype: the Myths of Technology Change" by Bob Seidensticker, provides countless historical examples that refute this view, while identifying some prevailing technology myths that can lead us astray in our technology decision-making.

“Technology is changing exponentially.” It seems that way, but is it really? Seidensticker's analysis of the data shows that while technologies will experience varying periods of fast growth, they are not exponential (continuing to increase by multiples), and the rate of change is determined by many different factors. His view is that exponential change would mean that the technological progress of a 50 year period, in the last century for instance, would be achieved in one week today.

By comparing the technological advances in 50 year increments over centuries past to present, Future Hype attempts to provide a more realistic perspective on technology’s steady progression and resulting societal effects and challenges the myth that today’s advances and their social impacts are more change producing than in eras past.

Seidensticker believes the speed of technology change is just one area where oversimplification contributes to an inaccurate prevailing view. Future Hype attempts to point out what the author believes are some common misperceptions that can lead us astray in our technology discernment and suggests ideas for more effective technology decision-making:

Technological Myopia – Try to remember the first time you used various technologies. For example, Seidensticker remembers the first time he flew on a Boeing 747, the first time he used a microwave, the first time he used a mainframe computer, a cell phone, and a Web browser.

By contrast he does not recall the first time he rode in a car, watched television, read a book, used an electric appliance, or made a phone call. By the time he was born, these technologies had become unremarkable parts of society.

Human nature views recent technologies, particularly those invented between the ages of 15 and 35, as new, revolutionary and exciting and they are remembered with clarity and emphasis; we diminish older technologies’ contributions, which can become hazy and ignored. This tendency to see the new out of proportion to its impact and to discount the old helps to explain the pervasive and distorted view of technology in our society today. We shouldn’t minimize the contributions of past technologies or we lose a valuable perspective, including key lessons and unintended consequences.

Coolness Fallacy – Scott Paper sold paper dresses beginning in 1966 and 500,000 were shipped in 6 months. You could shorten your dress with scissors, customize it with paint and discard after wearing it once. It was a fad whose popularity lasted only a few years, like CB radios a decade later. Neither answered real customer demands.

A technology might be revolutionary, but the product built from that technology won’t necessarily be. We should remain objective about the benefits of the product and avoid technology infatuation, which can lead to making the wrong technology investments.

Oversimplification – We may hear things like “High tech change is getting faster and faster” and that may seem true. However an examination of historical events, says Seidensticker, would show that technology is changing as fast today as it has in other periods.

No doubt, progress over the last 50 years is impressive. Seidensticker points out that the computer went from lab curiosity to business and personal necessity, the Internet was born, and cell phones became ubiquitous. Airplanes grew more sophisticated, nuclear power advanced, and weapons became more deadly. A peek at any similar period since the Industrial Revolution shows technology was just as quickly developed and life-altering then as now. He reminds us that the telegraph was invented and soon bridged the Atlantic, allowing information to travel near the speed of light, steamship service began, and cameras were created and refined. What’s more, the sewing machine revolutionized the textile industry, and steam driven printing presses increased page production to 20,000 sheets per hour and drove down newspaper costs.

Albert Einstein observed, “Things should be made as simple as possible—but no simpler.”  Seidensticker wants us to look at the facts and resist the hype--don’t try to squeeze an exponential curve where it doesn’t fit or imagine patterns where the actual facts are messier. We should identify and avoid oversimplification.

Stuck-in-the-Present Predictions – The 1960s and ‘70s saw predictions of nuclear-powered planes and vacations in space because nuclear power and space exploration were the hot topics. The topics of today are often applied too freely into predictions about tomorrow. Even though it’s a big deal now, it may not be in the future. We should watch out for careless extrapolations of today’s trends—none last forever—and tomorrow’s big invention rarely comes from today’s technology.

Law of Diminishing Returns – Moore’s Law says that the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years. This has been accurate for the last 30 years—impressive, though it usually yields fewer benefits than one might expect, especially in regards to services. For example, a video game that uses ten times more computing power will not have ten times as many users or get ten times as much use. Further, Moore’s Second Law predicts another exponential curve: that the cost of new integrated circuit fabrication plants doubles every four years. The increase in factory costs has been supported by the increase in demand for their products, but if markets saturate, demand may drop and Moore’s Second Law may deflate Moore’s First Law. There are many other examples of diminishing returns. We should be aware of the Law of Diminishing Returns in our technology investments.

Today’s technological advances are exciting and they are changing how we communicate and conduct business. But Future Hype suggests we take a shrewder look when the next “essential” innovation is introduced. By raising these technology myths out of unconscious acceptance and exposing their flaws, Seidensticker hopes to help us recognize them in the future so we make wise investments and eliminate the shelfware and hardware mistakes wrought by betting on the wrong technologies.

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